[Excel] Bonus Probabilities

by **cairnswk** on Sat Sep 21, 2013 8:38 pm

i have to ask...does this table allow for consideration of coded neutrals in a region when calculating the drop probability?

by **koontz1973** on Sun Sep 22, 2013 6:15 am

cairnswk wrote:i have to ask...does this table allow for consideration of coded neutrals in a region when calculating the drop probability?

Not sure I follow. A coded neutral means the probability of dropping the bonus is 0.

by **cairnswk** on Sun Sep 22, 2013 2:50 pm

koontz1973 wrote:
cairnswk wrote:i have to ask...does this table allow for consideration of coded neutrals in a region when calculating the drop probability?

Not sure I follow. A coded neutral means the probability of dropping the bonus is 0.

Of course that does, but...
in a 4 tert region...where one of the terts is coded neutral, you still have a drop of 3 to occur, but actually 4 to gain the bonus...so there must be differing probabilities, yes?

I think this tool could be incorporated with the Starting Drop Calculator, so that all that information is on one page.

The info for each two lines is also a little confusing.

Bonus Area Size 4
Terrs Required for Bonus 4

What does bonus area size actually mean?
Terrs Required for Bonus is self explanatory.

Take this for example.

Bonus Area Size 4 Probablity of A player receiving the bonus 1.01%
Terrs Required for Bonus 4 Probablity of ANY player receiving the bonus 2.02%

What does 1.01% mean in relation to Bonus Area Size given that is not properly explained? Or at least i don't understand it, and if i don't understand it, then there are going to be others out there who don't understand it also.
Does 2.02% take into account that perhaps 2 of those terts starts neutral?

by **thenobodies80** on Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:18 am

I'll get in touch with MrBenn soon to give you a more detailed reply and maybe see if he is willing to update the tool (12players etc etc) and join it with the one i did.

for now, about this:

cairnswk wrote:The info for each two lines is also a little confusing.

Bonus Area Size 4
Terrs Required for Bonus 4

What does bonus area size actually mean?
Terrs Required for Bonus is self explanatory.

I think bonus area size means how much is big your bonus (number of total regions), territories required is how many of these territories into the area bonus are required to gain a bonus (i.e. <required> tag)
As you certainly know there're maps on which a continent A is composed by X regions on the whole, but you need just Y to receive a bonus (in general a partial bonus)
So the tool is done to take in account this.
In fact if you have a map with 42 regions and a bonus onto it that is a 4 regions bonus that works in this way "hold 4 for +5" and "hold at least 3 for +3" (just an example), then you have two very different percentages in the two cases.
When you receive 4 random regions on 42, you have the 1,79% of probabilities to have any player to start with that bonus if it's necessary to have those exact 4 regions.
Instead if you need just 3 of them to collect the bonus (don't care if the 4th is neutral or not), then you have a big 20% of probabilities of any player to start with it.
So set the area size (if there's one) is really important. It's not just 3/42, but it's ((3/4)/42) so ((required territories/area size)/total regions on the map)

Hope it helps,
Nobodies